Monday Night Football: Chargers Slight Road Favorites vs Raiders in Week 2 AFC West Tilt
Posted on Sep 16, 2025 by Daxton Haverford
The line is tight, the history is rich, and the stakes are obvious. The Los Angeles Chargers visit the Las Vegas Raiders for Monday Night Football in Week 2, a prime-time divisional matchup with a 10 p.m. ET kickoff at Allegiant Stadium. You’ll find it on ESPN, ABC, ESPN Deportes, and NFL+. Oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook opened Los Angeles as a 3.5-point favorite on the road, and most early analysis tilts the same way—narrow edge to the Chargers.
Both teams are 1-0. The Chargers arrive fresh off a statement win over Kansas City in São Paulo, Brazil, while the Raiders are trying to stack early credibility under new head coach Pete Carroll. This one isn’t just about September momentum. It’s a chance to grab pole position in a division neither has owned in a long time—Los Angeles hasn’t won the AFC West since 2009; Las Vegas hasn’t since 2002.
Why the line leans L.A.
Start with the quarterbacks. Justin Herbert gives Los Angeles an edge in high-leverage spots—arm talent, accuracy to all levels, and enough movement to buy time when the pocket leaks. The Raiders counter with Gardner Minshew, who is fearless and streaky. He can dice up soft coverage when he gets in rhythm and he rarely panics, but the margin for error shrinks against a defense that can tighten windows late.
Coaching is its own attraction. Jim Harbaugh vs Pete Carroll is back, and the tally is dead even in the regular season: 4-4 across their NFL meetings. Carroll does own the signature postseason win—the 2013 NFC Championship—so there’s real history here. Their identities are clear. Harbaugh wants physical balance and control at the line of scrimmage. Carroll leans on discipline, speed on defense, and forcing opponents into mistakes. Expect a measured fourth-down approach from both, with Harbaugh willing to ride his offensive line if short yardage looks clean and Carroll counting on his pass rush to flip field position.
Personnel tips the scale for Los Angeles on paper. The Chargers have the better overall QB, a deeper set of skill players, and a defense that doesn’t need to blitz to win downs if its front four shows up. The tricky part is protection. With Rashawn Slater out, rookie Joe Alt is expected to start at left tackle. He’s talented, strong, and technically ahead of schedule, but he’s still a rookie going against one of the league’s best edge players in Maxx Crosby. That’s the stress point everyone will circle.
Travel is a subplot worth mentioning. Los Angeles is coming back from Brazil and a highly emotional win. That kind of trip taxes bodies and schedules. The Chargers will have had a full week to reset, but how quickly they settle into the game—first couple of series, cadence, communication—will tell you a lot about their legs.
On the Raiders’ side, tight end Brock Bowers could be the swing piece. When healthy, he’s a matchup nightmare—too fast for linebackers, too strong for most safeties. He’s dealing with a knee issue, and if he’s even a half-step compromised, Las Vegas loses some of its most creative answers in the middle of the field and on play-action crossers. If he’s close to full go, the Raiders have a lever to punish zone looks and stress the Chargers’ tackling angles.
Matchups that could swing it
Maxx Crosby vs Joe Alt: That’s the headliner. Crosby wins with motor, hands, and angles. He’ll test Alt’s footwork early with inside counters and then threaten the corner when Alt anchors hard. The Chargers will likely give help with chips and quick-game timing when Crosby lines up wide. If Crosby stacks pressures early, it changes how aggressive Los Angeles can be vertically.
Herbert vs disguised coverage: The Raiders under Carroll will change the picture late—show two-high, spin to one; mug the A-gaps, drop out. Herbert has seen everything, but if Las Vegas can muddy third-and-medium, it can steal a possession or two. Watch for how quickly Herbert gets to his outlets on early downs. Quick answers keep Crosby from wrecking drives.
Gardner Minshew and the early script: The first 15 plays will be telling. If the Raiders can steal easy yards with motion, play-action, and in-breakers, Minshew settles in. If they’re behind the chains, the Chargers’ rush can squeeze the pocket and force throws late in the down—where mistakes live.
Middle of the field with Brock Bowers: If Bowers is active and moving well, Las Vegas can force the Chargers to decide: allocate a safety over him and risk single coverage elsewhere, or play him straight and hope your linebackers can run. Either way, this is where chunk plays hide. If he’s limited, the Raiders need someone else to win seams and deep-intermediate windows.
Chargers’ run game on schedule: Harbaugh likes staying even on downs. If Los Angeles is picking up four and five on the ground, you’ll see long possessions and a quieter building. If the Raiders stone early-down runs, third-and-long becomes a Crosby playground, and the game tightens.
Hidden yardage and special teams: Prime time games swing on details—coverage units, punt hangtime, return decisions. The Raiders would love a short field or two. The Chargers have to avoid the one special-teams miscue that flips momentum in a building that gets loud fast under the roof.
Red-zone finishing: Field goals keep underdogs alive. Touchdowns bury them. If Los Angeles goes two-for-two early inside the 20, that 3.5-point spread starts to look small. If Las Vegas forces kicks and answers with one explosive drive, the rhythm of the game changes.
Turnover pressure points: For the Raiders to spring the upset, they likely need a two-swing game—strip-sack, tipped-ball pick, something that shortcuts the march. For the Chargers, clean pockets and ball security neutralize that path. Look at the first half: if Los Angeles reaches the break turnover-free, they’re usually tough to chase down.
Discipline and penalties: Carroll teams emphasize clean football. Harbaugh teams do, too, but a young tackle plus loud environment can invite false starts. Early cadence issues would be a red flag for Los Angeles; early defensive holding would be a red flag for Las Vegas.
Recent history nudges this toward the Chargers. They swept the Raiders last season, winning both by double digits. That said, this is not a copy-paste matchup. Carroll brings a different defensive temperament and a steadier sideline, and the Raiders’ roster is being reshaped to fit that vision. Culture doesn’t win alone, but it shows up in situational downs—third-and-3, red-zone snap 11, the drive after a turnover.
So what should you expect? A tight one that lives in the fourth quarter if Crosby gets home and Bowers is active. A cleaner game with a Chargers lean if Herbert has time and Los Angeles stays ahead of the sticks. The 3.5-point number suggests a one-score finish either way.
What would a Chargers win look like? A balanced first half, protection holding up just enough, a couple of Herbert lasers to keep the Raiders honest, and a key third-down stop late. What would a Raiders upset look like? Minshew at 8–10 yards per attempt on play-action, a Crosby strip-sack somewhere in the second half, and Bowers converting a gotta-have-it down near the red zone.
Both franchises are chasing something bigger than a single prime-time win. The AFC West looks crowded again, and schedule math gets mean in October. A clean, convincing result here sets a tone. For Harbaugh, it’s validation of a build that’s supposed to travel. For Carroll, it’s proof that the new voice in Las Vegas can turn tight games into wins—right away.